I Love Inflation

Today is CPI day, and the numbers are fresh off the presses: Core CPI came in 4.1% YoY while Headline CPI was 3.7% YoY. Sitcky inflation, is it here to stay? It's been one of the most prescient fears of economists and the Fed--inflation that just won't return to the 2% target. Why should we worry about inflation if it's just above the desired target goal? Should we be ok with inflation in the low 3% range?

First and foremost, we are over here rooting for deflation. When the cost of Chipotle is up 25%+ depending on where you live and the McDonald's dollar menu is basically nonexistent (what happened to my $1 cheeseburgers?!), it really makes you start to realize how much this sucks. Then they finish you off when you go to the grocery store and you start to wonder if you should start growing your own food and raising some cattle and chickens. After two years of this, it's starting to get a little bit tiresome.

The biggest concern, though, is if sticky inflation becomes stagflation--a real concern as the economy feels like it's teetering on the brink of a recession. Stagflation is when you have high inflation, high unemployment, and stagnant economic demand; in other words, a real bad time. Employment remains strong though (even if it is slightly questionable based on the drastic rise in 1099 employment which may indicate either everyone out there is trading in a prop firm OR they've picked up gig work to supplement their income because they can't pay their bills) so for now we are really suffering more of a vibecession (a great term coined by Kyla Scanlon). The vibes are, well, off.

Inflation--it's here, for now, still--so get used to it. You don't have to love it (unless you really want to, who are we to judge!), but you still sadly have to feel it in your wallet and deal with its lingering effects on the markets.

Here are today's NQ levels:

Current Price: 15380

Upside Targets: 15405, 15463, 15507, 15546

Downside Targets: 15338, 15290, 15240, 15170

Stretch Targets: 15586, 15125